Haryana assembly results shot in arm for Mahayuti, alarm bell for MVA

Mumbai: The Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP’s) unexpected victory in the Haryana assembly elections has come as a shot in the arm for the ruling Mahayuti alliance in Maharashtra amid an air of uncertainty, while dampening the spirits in the opposition Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA) camp weeks ahead of the assembly polls in the state.
With the BJP heading towards a historic third straight term in Haryana, Mahayuti leaders declared that the results would be repeated in Maharashtra. While opposition leaders played down the statements, some admitted that the MVA should regard the BJP’s victory in Haryana as a warning sign.
The MVA has been riding high after winning 30 out of 48 seats in Maharashtra in the Lok Sabha elections earlier this year. MVA leaders have been insisting that the opposition coalition will win the upcoming Maharashtra elections as their candidates were leading in more than 150 assembly segments out of 288 in the Lok Sabha polls.
With a few leaders from the BJP and Ajit Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) shifting to the Sharad Pawar-led NCP (SP) recently, the mood in the ruling alliance was not exactly chirpy in recent weeks. In this background, the Haryana results couldn’t have come at a better time for the Mahayuti.
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“What happened in Haryana will be replicated in Maharashtra,” declared a beaming Devendra Fadnavis as he joined BJP workers to celebrate his party’s victory in the northern state. The deputy chief minister reiterated that the Mahayuti would not fall prey again to the “fake narrative” set by the opposition ahead of the Lok Sabha polls that the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) at the Centre was attempting to change the Constitution to remove reservations. “We will counter the fake narrative with a thet (direct in Marathi) narrative,” Fadnavis said.
Public remarks apart, the ruling alliance is buoyed by the Haryana results not just because of the confidence boost but also the success of the BJP’s strategies, which bear similarities with what it’s doing in Maharashtra. For instance, in both states, the BJP is focussing on Other Backward Classes (OBCs) and a series of populist decisions taken in the run-up to the polls.
One of the major reasons attributed to the Mahayuti’s poor performance in the Lok Sabha polls was the consolidation of Maratha votes against the alliance over not meeting the community’s demand for reservation under the OBC quota. With the issue still simmering ahead of the assembly polls, the BJP has decided to focus on consolidating OBCs, who outnumber Marathas, under its wing. According to the 1931 caste census, Marathas constitute about 32% of Maharashtra’s population, while OBCs make up around 50%.
“In the Lok Sabha elections, the Maratha community voted against us in Marathwada and some other parts of the state,” said a senior BJP minister. “Learning a lesson from the same, we stepped up our connection with the OBCs, who are more in numbers and disturbed by Maratha quota activist Manoj Jarange-Patil’s demand that they should be given reservation in the OBC quota. We think OBCs are better mobilised as compared to the Lok Sabha polls, which should benefit us.”
In Haryana, chief minister Nayab Singh Saini’s government took 126 decisions during his 70-odd days in office after taking charge in March. In Maharashtra, too, chief minister Eknath Shinde’s government has taken a series of populist decisions this year, including introducing the Majhi Ladki Bahin Yojana to give ₹1,500 per month to underprivileged women in the state. After being launched in August, the scheme has already been extended to 25 million beneficiaries.
The BJP government in Haryana also reached out to smaller communities among the backward classes, something it’s doing in Maharashtra as well. The Mahyuti government has taken several decisions to please smaller backward communities, such as sub-categorising Scheduled Castes and forming welfare corporations for khatiks, fisherfolk and other communities.
However, opposition leaders sought to dismiss the talk that the Haryana results would impact the Maharashtra polls.
“I don’t think what happened in Haryana will have an impact on Maharashtra,” said former chief minister and senior Congress leader Prithviraj Chavan. “There was a bipolar contest [between the BJP and Congress) in Haryana. Here, we have a fight between alliances of three parties. If the BJP thinks they won because of Prime Minister Modi, then let them project the contest here as Modi versus the MVA.”
An NCP (SP) leader, however, admitted that the way the Congress lost and the BJP won in Haryana should be a warning signal for the MVA coalition. “It showed that the consolidation of castes can bring results, which BJP has been trying to do here as well. Further, opposition parties have not been able to counter the BJP’s narrative in urban areas. This is applicable in Maharashtra, as the ruling parties are still doing well in cities. We are also assessing the impact of the Ladki Bahin Yojana. We will have to introspect and do a course correction here if needed.”
The Election Commission of India is expected to announce the schedule for the Maharashtra assembly polls any day after October 10. The elections are likely to be held in the second half of November, according to state government officials.